Crotone 0–1 Cosenza: Result & Stats | Serie B

Crotone

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cosenza

11/26/2018

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Crotone49%

×Draw26%

Cosenza25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CrotoneExpected goals in this matchCosenza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.96

Crotone

1.48

Cosenza

0.96

Crotone creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 134 away

1.43

creates per match

0.90

1.02

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Crotone

1.43

Cosenza

0.90

allows per match

Crotone

1.02

Cosenza

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par

Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Cosenza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Crotone or draw

75%

Crotone or Cosenza

74%

Draw or Cosenza

51%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+

25%

Cosenza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals

77%

Crotone 2+ goals

43%

Crotone 3+ goals

19%

Cosenza 1+ goals

62%

Cosenza 2+ goals

25%

Cosenza 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)

67%

Cosenza (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.02 · 56 matches

Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.43 + Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Cosenza attack 0.90 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crotone scores more

49%

level

26%

Cosenza scores more

25%

Crotone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff