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Crotone vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Crotone
Crotone
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Atalanta
Atalanta
9/26/2016Serie ASerie A · Round 6Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Crotone24%
×Draw23%
Atalanta52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.13
Atalanta
1.78

Atalanta creates 58% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 137 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.19
Atalanta
1.91

allows per match

Crotone
1.66
Atalanta
1.07

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
48%
Crotone or Atalanta
77%
Draw or Atalanta
76%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
9%
Atalanta wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
68%
Crotone 2+ goals
31%
Crotone 3+ goals
11%
Atalanta 1+ goals
83%
Atalanta 2+ goals
53%
Atalanta 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
32%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.07 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.19 + Atalanta defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atalanta attack 1.91 + Crotone defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Crotone scores more
24%
level
23%
Atalanta scores more
52%

Atalanta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Crotone 1–3 Atalanta

Atalanta beat Crotone 3-1 in Serie A on September 26, 2016.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.