Atalanta 1–0 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie A

Atalanta

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crotone

A. Conti 48'

2/18/2017

Serie A · Round 25Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atalanta65%

×Draw19%

Crotone16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtalantaExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.07

Atalanta

2.33

Crotone

1.07

Atalanta creates 118% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 32 away

2.06

creates per match

0.97

1.18

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Atalanta

2.06

Crotone

0.97

allows per match

Atalanta

1.18

Crotone

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atalanta+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw

84%

Atalanta or Crotone

81%

Draw or Crotone

35%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+

42%

Crotone wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals

90%

Atalanta 2+ goals

67%

Atalanta 3+ goals

41%

Crotone 1+ goals

66%

Crotone 2+ goals

29%

Crotone 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)

80%

Crotone (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.18 · 136 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 2.06 + Crotone defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.33

Crotone attack 0.97 + Atalanta defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Atalanta scores more

65%

level

19%

Crotone scores more

16%

Atalanta at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Conti

Atalanta · M

7.8

Match Events

28'

45'

48'

52'

58'

62'

66'

69'

72'

78'

78'

90+1'

B. Cristante← A. Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtalantaCrotone

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots5

4Corners3

15Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots5

3On Target2

9Off Target1

2Blocked2

11Inside Box1

3Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

482Total Passes383

388Accurate Passes259

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls18

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Atalanta vs Crotone

Atalanta beat Crotone 1-0 in Serie A on February 18, 2017.

Goals: A. Conti (48').

Atalanta controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia in Bergamo.

Atalanta vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atalanta vs Crotone