Crotone U19 0–1 Ternana U19: Result & Stats

Crotone U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ternana U19

10/18/2025

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Crotone U1941%

×Draw24%

Ternana U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crotone U19Expected goals in this matchTernana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.46

Crotone U19

1.61

Ternana U19

1.46

Crotone U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 72 away

1.33

creates per match

0.94

1.98

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Crotone U19

1.33

Ternana U19

0.94

allows per match

Crotone U19

1.98

Ternana U19

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone U19+0.00on par

Ternana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone U19 ↓

Ternana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Crotone U19 or draw

65%

Crotone U19 or Ternana U19

76%

Draw or Ternana U19

59%

Winning margin

Crotone U19 wins by 2+

21%

Ternana U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Crotone U19 1+ goals

80%

Crotone U19 2+ goals

48%

Crotone U19 3+ goals

22%

Ternana U19 1+ goals

77%

Ternana U19 2+ goals

43%

Ternana U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Crotone U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Ternana U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.98 · 85 matches

Ternana U19 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.90 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone U19 attack 1.33 + Ternana U19 defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ternana U19 attack 0.94 + Crotone U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Crotone U19 scores more

41%

level

24%

Ternana U19 scores more

35%

Crotone U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Crotone U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff