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Crotone U19 vs Salernitana U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Crotone U19
Crotone U19
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Salernitana U19
Salernitana U19
2/24/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 20Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Crotone U1943%
×Draw23%
Salernitana U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone U19
1.76
Salernitana U19
1.54

Crotone U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 84 away

creates per match

Crotone U19
1.33
Salernitana U19
1.10

allows per match

Crotone U19
1.98
Salernitana U19
2.18

finishing

Crotone U19+0.00on par
Salernitana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone U19 ↓

Salernitana U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Crotone U19 or draw
66%
Crotone U19 or Salernitana U19
77%
Draw or Salernitana U19
57%

Winning margin

Crotone U19 wins by 2+
23%
Salernitana U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Crotone U19 1+ goals
83%
Crotone U19 2+ goals
52%
Crotone U19 3+ goals
26%
Salernitana U19 1+ goals
79%
Salernitana U19 2+ goals
45%
Salernitana U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Crotone U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Salernitana U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.98 · 85 matches

Salernitana U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.18 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone U19 attack 1.33 + Salernitana U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Salernitana U19 attack 1.10 + Crotone U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Crotone U19 scores more
43%
level
23%
Salernitana U19 scores more
34%

Crotone U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Crotone U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Crotone U19 vs Salernitana U19

Crotone U19 and Salernitana U19 drew 3-3 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale in Cirò Marina.