Crotone U19 2–1 Napoli U19: Result & Stats

Crotone U19

FT

2 – 1

Napoli U19

5/19/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 18Stadio Comunale Salvatore Baffa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Crotone U1928%

×Draw23%

Napoli U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crotone U19Expected goals in this matchNapoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.83

Crotone U19

1.32

Napoli U19

1.83

Napoli U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 42 away

1.33

creates per match

1.69

1.98

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Crotone U19

1.33

Napoli U19

1.69

allows per match

Crotone U19

1.98

Napoli U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone U19+0.00on par

Napoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone U19 ↓

Napoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Crotone U19 or draw

51%

Crotone U19 or Napoli U19

77%

Draw or Napoli U19

72%

Winning margin

Crotone U19 wins by 2+

12%

Napoli U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Crotone U19 1+ goals

73%

Crotone U19 2+ goals

38%

Crotone U19 3+ goals

15%

Napoli U19 1+ goals

84%

Napoli U19 2+ goals

54%

Napoli U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Crotone U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Napoli U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.98 · 85 matches

Napoli U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone U19 attack 1.33 + Napoli U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Napoli U19 attack 1.69 + Crotone U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crotone U19 scores more

28%

level

23%

Napoli U19 scores more

49%

Napoli U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Napoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff