Crotone U19 1–2 Ascoli U19: Result & Stats

Crotone U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ascoli U19

2/3/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group B - 17Stadio Comunale Salvatore Baffa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Crotone U1933%

×Draw23%

Ascoli U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crotone U19Expected goals in this matchAscoli U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.73

Crotone U19

1.46

Ascoli U19

1.73

Ascoli U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 73 away

1.33

creates per match

1.48

1.98

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Crotone U19

1.33

Ascoli U19

1.48

allows per match

Crotone U19

1.98

Ascoli U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Crotone U19+0.00on par

Ascoli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone U19 ↓

Ascoli U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Crotone U19 or draw

56%

Crotone U19 or Ascoli U19

77%

Draw or Ascoli U19

67%

Winning margin

Crotone U19 wins by 2+

15%

Ascoli U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Crotone U19 1+ goals

77%

Crotone U19 2+ goals

43%

Crotone U19 3+ goals

18%

Ascoli U19 1+ goals

82%

Ascoli U19 2+ goals

52%

Ascoli U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Crotone U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Ascoli U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone U19 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.98 · 85 matches

Ascoli U19 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone U19 attack 1.33 + Ascoli U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ascoli U19 attack 1.48 + Crotone U19 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crotone U19 scores more

33%

level

23%

Ascoli U19 scores more

44%

Ascoli U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ascoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff