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Cronenberger SC vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
0 – 3
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
9/19/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 5Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cronenberger SC42%
×Draw23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
1.75
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.57

Cronenberger SC creates 11% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.20

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
1.95

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
65%
Cronenberger SC or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
77%
Draw or TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf
58%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
22%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
83%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
52%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
25%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 1+ goals
79%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 2+ goals
46%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
55%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf attack 1.20 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
42%
level
23%
TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf scores more
35%

Cronenberger SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cronenberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cronenberger SC vs TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf

TuRU 1880 Düsseldorf beat Cronenberger SC 3-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.