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Cronenberger SC vs SW Essen — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
SW Essen
SW Essen
2/26/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 26Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cronenberger SC34%
×Draw22%
SW Essen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
1.59
SW Essen
1.84

SW Essen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 91 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
SW Essen
1.73

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
SW Essen
1.63

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
SW Essen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

SW Essen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
56%
Cronenberger SC or SW Essen
78%
Draw or SW Essen
66%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
16%
SW Essen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
80%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
47%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
21%
SW Essen 1+ goals
84%
SW Essen 2+ goals
55%
SW Essen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
43%
SW Essen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

SW Essen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + SW Essen defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.59

SW Essen attack 1.73 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
34%
level
22%
SW Essen scores more
44%

SW Essen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SW Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cronenberger SC vs SW Essen

SW Essen beat Cronenberger SC 7-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.