Cronenberger SC 0–2 SF Hamborn: Result & Stats

Cronenberger SC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

SF Hamborn

4/2/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 32Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Cronenberger SC45%

×Draw21%

SF Hamborn34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cronenberger SCExpected goals in this matchSF Hamborn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.79

Cronenberger SC

2.08

SF Hamborn

1.79

Cronenberger SC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 37 away

1.56

creates per match

1.62

1.95

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Cronenberger SC

1.56

SF Hamborn

1.62

allows per match

Cronenberger SC

1.95

SF Hamborn

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

SF Hamborn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

SF Hamborn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw

66%

Cronenberger SC or SF Hamborn

79%

Draw or SF Hamborn

55%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

26%

SF Hamborn wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

87%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

61%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

34%

SF Hamborn 1+ goals

83%

SF Hamborn 2+ goals

53%

SF Hamborn 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

57%

SF Hamborn (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

SF Hamborn away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + SF Hamborn defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.08

SF Hamborn attack 1.62 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more

45%

level

21%

SF Hamborn scores more

34%

Cronenberger SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cronenberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff