Cronenberger SC 1–3 SF Baumberg: Result & Stats

Cronenberger SC

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

SF Baumberg

2/20/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 18Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cronenberger SC36%

×Draw22%

SF Baumberg43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cronenberger SCExpected goals in this matchSF Baumberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.93

Cronenberger SC

1.75

SF Baumberg

1.93

SF Baumberg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 95 away

1.56

creates per match

1.91

1.95

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Cronenberger SC

1.56

SF Baumberg

1.91

allows per match

Cronenberger SC

1.95

SF Baumberg

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

SF Baumberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw

57%

Cronenberger SC or SF Baumberg

78%

Draw or SF Baumberg

64%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

18%

SF Baumberg wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

83%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

52%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

25%

SF Baumberg 1+ goals

85%

SF Baumberg 2+ goals

57%

SF Baumberg 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

45%

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more

36%

level

22%

SF Baumberg scores more

43%

SF Baumberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cronenberger SC vs SF Baumberg

SF Baumberg beat Cronenberger SC 3-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.

Cronenberger SC vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cronenberger SC vs SF Baumberg