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Cronenberger SC vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
1 – 1
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
10/31/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 11Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Cronenberger SC53%
×Draw21%
SC Velbert26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
2.19
SC Velbert
1.48

Cronenberger SC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 22 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
74%
Cronenberger SC or SC Velbert
79%
Draw or SC Velbert
47%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
32%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
89%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
64%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
37%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
77%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
43%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
67%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.19

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
53%
level
21%
SC Velbert scores more
26%

Cronenberger SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cronenberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Cronenberger SC 1–1 SC Velbert

Cronenberger SC and SC Velbert drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.