Cronenberger SC 1–0 SC St. Tönis: Result & Stats

Cronenberger SC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SC St. Tönis

2/22/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 21Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cronenberger SC31%

×Draw22%

SC St. Tönis47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cronenberger SCExpected goals in this matchSC St. Tönis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.96

Cronenberger SC

1.56

SC St. Tönis

1.96

SC St. Tönis creates 26% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 70 away

1.56

creates per match

1.97

1.95

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cronenberger SC

1.56

SC St. Tönis

1.97

allows per match

Cronenberger SC

1.95

SC St. Tönis

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par

SC St. Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

SC St. Tönis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw

53%

Cronenberger SC or SC St. Tönis

78%

Draw or SC St. Tönis

69%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+

15%

SC St. Tönis wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals

79%

Cronenberger SC 2+ goals

46%

Cronenberger SC 3+ goals

21%

SC St. Tönis 1+ goals

86%

SC St. Tönis 2+ goals

58%

SC St. Tönis 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)

40%

SC St. Tönis (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

SC St. Tönis away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.56 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + SC St. Tönis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.56

SC St. Tönis attack 1.97 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more

31%

level

22%

SC St. Tönis scores more

47%

SC St. Tönis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SC St. Tönis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff