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Cronenberger SC vs Monheim — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Monheim
Monheim
4/19/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 30Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cronenberger SC38%
×Draw23%
Monheim39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
1.69
Monheim
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 73 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
Monheim
1.45

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
Monheim
1.81

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
Monheim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

Monheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
61%
Cronenberger SC or Monheim
77%
Draw or Monheim
62%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
19%
Monheim wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
82%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
50%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
24%
Monheim 1+ goals
82%
Monheim 2+ goals
51%
Monheim 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
50%
Monheim (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

Monheim away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.81 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + Monheim defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Monheim attack 1.45 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
38%
level
23%
Monheim scores more
39%

Monheim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Cronenberger SC 1–4 Monheim

Monheim beat Cronenberger SC 4-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Horst-Neuhoff-Sportplatz in Wuppertal.