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Cronenberger SC vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Cronenberger SC
Cronenberger SC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
3/29/2023Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 22Stadion am Zoo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cronenberger SC33%
×Draw23%
KFC Uerdingen 0544%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cronenberger SC
1.48
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.73

KFC Uerdingen 05 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 53 away

creates per match

Cronenberger SC
1.56
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

Cronenberger SC
1.95
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

Cronenberger SC+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cronenberger SC ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cronenberger SC or draw
56%
Cronenberger SC or KFC Uerdingen 05
77%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
67%

Winning margin

Cronenberger SC wins by 2+
15%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Cronenberger SC 1+ goals
77%
Cronenberger SC 2+ goals
43%
Cronenberger SC 3+ goals
19%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
82%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
52%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Cronenberger SC (draw refunded)
43%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cronenberger SC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.95 · 39 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cronenberger SC attack 1.56 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + Cronenberger SC defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cronenberger SC scores more
33%
level
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
44%

KFC Uerdingen 05 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KFC Uerdingen 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Cronenberger SC 3–2 KFC Uerdingen 05

Cronenberger SC beat KFC Uerdingen 05 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion am Zoo in Wuppertal.