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Croix Football IC vs Reims — Coupe de France 2018

Croix Football IC
Croix Football IC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Reims
Reimsadvanced
T. Teuma 45'
A. Bojang 34'
N. Bassette 28'
H. Sekine 10'
12/19/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Stade Henri Seigneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Croix Football IC17%
×Draw22%
Reims62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croix Football IC
0.88
Reims
1.93

Reims creates 119% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Croix Football IC
0.83
Reims
2.36

allows per match

Croix Football IC
1.50
Reims
0.93

finishing

Croix Football IC+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croix Football IC ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Croix Football IC or draw
38%
Croix Football IC or Reims
78%
Draw or Reims
83%

Winning margin

Croix Football IC wins by 2+
5%
Reims wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Croix Football IC 1+ goals
59%
Croix Football IC 2+ goals
22%
Croix Football IC 3+ goals
6%
Reims 1+ goals
85%
Reims 2+ goals
57%
Reims 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Croix Football IC (draw refunded)
21%
Reims (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croix Football IC at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Reims away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croix Football IC attack 0.83 + Reims defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.88

Reims attack 2.36 + Croix Football IC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Croix Football IC scores more
17%
level
22%
Reims scores more
62%

Reims at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
H. SekineReimsReims · D
8.5

Match Events

10'
H. Sekine
28'
N. Bassette↳ Zabi
34'
A. Bojang↳ T. Leoni
45'
Hugo Robert
45'
T. Teuma
46'
M. Debondt← M. Busi
61'
A. Tia← Zabi
62'
J. Patrick← T. Leoni
62'
A. Salama← T. Diarra
69'
M. Lachaab← T. Coppin
69'
B. Obino← R. Burnel
77'
Y. Demoncy← T. Teuma

Possession

26%Croix

Shots

4Croix

Pass accuracy

44%Croix

Statistics

CroixReims
Overview
26%Possession74%
4Total Shots17
2Corners2
7Fouls6
Shots
4Total Shots17
1On Target9
1Off Target6
2Blocked2
1Inside Box10
3Outside Box7
Passing
26%Possession74%
279Total Passes848
201Accurate Passes766
72%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls6
1Red Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Croix Football IC vs Reims

Reims beat Croix Football IC 4-0 in Coupe de France on December 19, 2025.

Goals: H. Sekine (10'), N. Bassette (28'), A. Bojang (34'), T. Teuma (45').

Reims controlled possession (74%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Henri Seigneur in Croix.