Croix Football IC 2–0 Raon l'Etape: Result & Stats

Croix Football IC

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Raon l'Etape

Fares Hassani 90'

Sofiane Mihoubi 85'

1/5/2019

Coupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade Henri Seigneur (Croix)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Croix Football IC20%

×Draw24%

Raon l'Etape57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croix Football ICExpected goals in this matchRaon l'Etape

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.75

Croix Football IC

0.92

Raon l'Etape

1.75

Raon l'Etape creates 90% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.83

creates per match

2.00

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Croix Football IC

0.83

Raon l'Etape

2.00

allows per match

Croix Football IC

1.50

Raon l'Etape

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croix Football IC+0.00on par

Raon l'Etape+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croix Football IC ↓

Raon l'Etape →

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Croix Football IC or draw

43%

Croix Football IC or Raon l'Etape

76%

Draw or Raon l'Etape

80%

Winning margin

Croix Football IC wins by 2+

Raon l'Etape wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Croix Football IC 1+ goals

60%

Croix Football IC 2+ goals

23%

Croix Football IC 3+ goals

Raon l'Etape 1+ goals

83%

Raon l'Etape 2+ goals

52%

Raon l'Etape 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Croix Football IC (draw refunded)

26%

Raon l'Etape (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Croix Football IC at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Raon l'Etape away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Croix Football IC attack 0.83 + Raon l'Etape defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Raon l'Etape attack 2.00 + Croix Football IC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Croix Football IC scores more

20%

level

24%

Raon l'Etape scores more

57%

Raon l'Etape at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Raon l'Etape will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

55'

56'

57'

85'

90'

Croix

Raon

⚽

Manager: J. Antunes

Croix Football IC substitutes

TamanateMihoubiDiaGuenounVanherrewegheBetinaRobail

Manager: E. Champagne

Raon l'Etape substitutes

MascarelliSimsekGéhinÖzcanAquiayiSurianiClavier

Match Recap: Croix Football IC vs Raon l'Etape

Croix Football IC beat Raon l'Etape 2-0 in Coupe de France on January 5, 2019.

Goals: Sofiane Mihoubi (85'), Fares Hassani (90').

The match was played at Stade Henri Seigneur (Croix).

Croix Football IC vs Raon l'Etape — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Croix Football IC vs Raon l'Etape