Croix Football IC vs Olympique St Quentin — League #465 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Croix Football IC35%
Olympique St Quentin35%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Croix Football IC ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Croix Football IC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches
Olympique St Quentin away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Croix Football IC attack 1.33 + Olympique St Quentin defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00
Olympique St Quentin attack 1.33 + Croix Football IC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 35%?"
Croix Football IC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 35% does not mean "Croix Football IC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Croix Football IC host Olympique St Quentin on Saturday, 15 February 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the League #465 2026/2027 season.
League #465: Croix Football IC 2–1 Olympique St Quentin
Croix Football IC beat Olympique St Quentin 2-1 in League #465 on February 15, 2025.
Goals: E. Julien (21'), R. Habbas (27'), L. Lorthiois (42').
The match was played at Stade Henri Seigneur in Croix.