Croix Football IC 2–1 Olympique Marcquois

Croix Football IC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Olympique Marcquois

G. Robail 82'

F. Vaast 78'

K. Dansoko 26'

4/9/2022

League #468 · Hauts-de-France - 20Stade Henri Seigneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Croix Football IC53%

×Draw24%

Olympique Marcquois23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croix Football ICExpected goals in this matchOlympique Marcquois

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

Croix Football IC

1.67

Olympique Marcquois

1.00

Croix Football IC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Croix Football IC

1.67

Olympique Marcquois

1.00

allows per match

Croix Football IC

1.00

Olympique Marcquois

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croix Football IC+0.00on par

Olympique Marcquois+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croix Football IC ↓

Olympique Marcquois →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Croix Football IC or draw

77%

Croix Football IC or Olympique Marcquois

76%

Draw or Olympique Marcquois

47%

Winning margin

Croix Football IC wins by 2+

29%

Olympique Marcquois wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Croix Football IC 1+ goals

81%

Croix Football IC 2+ goals

50%

Croix Football IC 3+ goals

23%

Olympique Marcquois 1+ goals

63%

Olympique Marcquois 2+ goals

26%

Olympique Marcquois 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Croix Football IC (draw refunded)

70%

Olympique Marcquois (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croix Football IC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Olympique Marcquois away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croix Football IC attack 1.67 + Olympique Marcquois defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Olympique Marcquois attack 1.00 + Croix Football IC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Croix Football IC scores more

53%

level

24%

Olympique Marcquois scores more

23%

Croix Football IC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Croix Football IC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

K. Dansoko

57'

O. Diaw← T. Lienard

60'

A. Madiani← M. Bouardja

65'

S. Robail← T. Christiaens

69'

W. Ali Moussa← R. Burnel

74'

F. Vaast← B. Nouchet

78'

F. Vaast

79'

M. Defrel← N. Merabti

82'

G. Robail

Croix

Olympique

1

2

4

5

6

3

▼

Lienard

11

▼

Merabti

8

Chah

7

Masson

10

⚽

Dansoko

9

▼

1

5

9

4

10

▼

Bouardja

2

Bouaziz

7

Palmieri

8

⚽

Robail

6

▼

Christiae

3

Tétart

11

▼

Nouchet

Manager: R. Dabrowski

60'▲A. Madiani←▼M. Bouardja

65'▲S. Robail←▼T. Christiaens

74'▲F. Vaast←▼B. Nouchet

Croix Football IC substitutes

13Madiani14Robail15Vaast16Marchione12Amelhaf

Manager: A. Herbault

57'▲O. Diaw←▼T. Lienard

69'▲W. Ali Moussa←▼R. Burnel

79'▲M. Defrel←▼N. Merabti

Olympique Marcquois substitutes

13Diaw16Moussa14Defrel15Boussemart12Faye