Croix Football IC 0–1 Entente S St Gratien

Croix Football IC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Entente S St Gratien

C. Rodrigues Silva 74'

12/7/2019

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade Henri Seigneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Croix Football IC11%

×Draw27%

Entente S St Gratien63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croix Football ICExpected goals in this matchEntente S St Gratien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.41

1.42

Croix Football IC

0.41

Entente S St Gratien

1.42

Entente S St Gratien creates 246% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

0.83

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Croix Football IC

0.83

Entente S St Gratien

1.33

allows per match

Croix Football IC

1.50

Entente S St Gratien

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croix Football IC+0.00on par

Entente S St Gratien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croix Football IC ↓

Entente S St Gratien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–123%

0–216%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–21%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Croix Football IC or draw

37%

Croix Football IC or Entente S St Gratien

73%

Draw or Entente S St Gratien

89%

Winning margin

Croix Football IC wins by 2+

2%

Entente S St Gratien wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Croix Football IC 1+ goals

34%

Croix Football IC 2+ goals

6%

Croix Football IC 3+ goals

1%

Entente S St Gratien 1+ goals

76%

Entente S St Gratien 2+ goals

41%

Entente S St Gratien 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Croix Football IC (draw refunded)

14%

Entente S St Gratien (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croix Football IC at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Entente S St Gratien away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croix Football IC attack 0.83 + Entente S St Gratien defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.41

Entente S St Gratien attack 1.33 + Croix Football IC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Croix Football IC scores more

11%

level

27%

Entente S St Gratien scores more

63%

Entente S St Gratien at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Entente S St Gratien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

T. Christiaens← R. Fresneau

65'

M. Guirassy← A. Diedhiou

74'

C. Rodrigues Silva

80'

A. Dos Santos← P. Derville

80'

B. Nouchet← B. Obino

80'

Mathieu Oliveira← C. Rodrigues Silva

90'

G. Lida← Y. Nesri

Croix

Entente

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Dabrowski

37'▲T. Christiaens←▼R. Fresneau

80'▲A. Dos Santos←▼P. Derville

80'▲B. Nouchet←▼B. Obino

Croix Football IC substitutes

ChristiaensSantosNouchetBockstalPollet

Manager: D. Caignard

65'▲M. Guirassy←▼A. Diedhiou

80'▲Mathieu Oliveira←▼C. Rodrigues Silva

90'▲G. Lida←▼Y. Nesri

Entente S St Gratien substitutes

GuirassyOliveiraLidaRaphoseVardin

Match Recap: Croix Football IC vs Entente S St Gratien

Entente S St Gratien beat Croix Football IC 1-0 in Coupe de France on December 7, 2019.

Goals: C. Rodrigues Silva (74').

The match was played at Stade Henri Seigneur in Croix.

Croix Football IC vs Entente S St Gratien — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Croix Football IC vs Entente S St Gratien