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Croatia Zmijavci vs Jarun — First NL 2018

Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jarun
Jarun
12/3/2023First NLFirst NL · Round 17Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Croatia Zmijavci47%
×Draw27%
Jarun26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia Zmijavci
1.40
Jarun
0.96

Croatia Zmijavci creates 46% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 82 away

creates per match

Croatia Zmijavci
1.46
Jarun
0.85

allows per match

Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Jarun
1.34

finishing

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par
Jarun+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia Zmijavci ↓

Jarun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Croatia Zmijavci or draw
74%
Croatia Zmijavci or Jarun
73%
Draw or Jarun
53%

Winning margin

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+
23%
Jarun wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals
75%
Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals
41%
Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals
17%
Jarun 1+ goals
62%
Jarun 2+ goals
25%
Jarun 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)
65%
Jarun (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia Zmijavci at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 106 matches

Jarun away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia Zmijavci attack 1.46 + Jarun defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Jarun attack 0.85 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Croatia Zmijavci scores more
47%
level
27%
Jarun scores more
26%

Croatia Zmijavci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Croatia Zmijavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Croatia Zmijavci vs Jarun

Croatia Zmijavci beat Jarun 1-0 in First NL on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma in Zmijavci.