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Croatia Zmijavci vs Bsk Bijelo Brdo — First NL 2018

Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
4/19/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 27Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Croatia Zmijavci47%
×Draw26%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia Zmijavci
1.46
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.01

Croatia Zmijavci creates 45% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 122 away

creates per match

Croatia Zmijavci
1.46
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
0.96

allows per match

Croatia Zmijavci
1.06
Bsk Bijelo Brdo
1.47

finishing

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par
Bsk Bijelo Brdo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia Zmijavci ↓

Bsk Bijelo Brdo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Croatia Zmijavci or draw
74%
Croatia Zmijavci or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
74%
Draw or Bsk Bijelo Brdo
53%

Winning margin

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+
23%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals
77%
Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals
43%
Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals
18%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 1+ goals
64%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 2+ goals
27%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)
64%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia Zmijavci at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 106 matches

Bsk Bijelo Brdo away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.47 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia Zmijavci attack 1.46 + Bsk Bijelo Brdo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bsk Bijelo Brdo attack 0.96 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Croatia Zmijavci scores more
47%
level
26%
Bsk Bijelo Brdo scores more
26%

Croatia Zmijavci at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Croatia Zmijavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Croatia Zmijavci 1–3 Bsk Bijelo Brdo

Bsk Bijelo Brdo beat Croatia Zmijavci 3-1 in First NL on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma in Zmijavci.