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Croatia W vs Montenegro W — Friendlies Women 2026

Croatia W
Croatia W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Montenegro W
Montenegro W
K. Kurkutovic 59'
M. Desic 45'
M. Tomasevic 38'
A. Kuc 16'
10/24/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Croatia W31%
×Draw22%
Montenegro W47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia W
1.50
Montenegro W
1.89

Montenegro W creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Croatia W
1.33
Montenegro W
2.11

allows per match

Croatia W
1.67
Montenegro W
1.67

finishing

Croatia W+0.00on par
Montenegro W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia W ↓

Montenegro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Croatia W or draw
53%
Croatia W or Montenegro W
78%
Draw or Montenegro W
69%

Winning margin

Croatia W wins by 2+
14%
Montenegro W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Croatia W 1+ goals
78%
Croatia W 2+ goals
44%
Croatia W 3+ goals
19%
Montenegro W 1+ goals
85%
Montenegro W 2+ goals
56%
Montenegro W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Croatia W (draw refunded)
40%
Montenegro W (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia W at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Montenegro W away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia W attack 1.33 + Montenegro W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Montenegro W attack 2.11 + Croatia W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Croatia W scores more
31%
level
22%
Montenegro W scores more
47%

Montenegro W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Montenegro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
A. Kuc
38'
M. Tomasevic
45'
M. Desic
59'
K. Kurkutovic
Croatia
Montenegro
N. Gračan
Manager: N. Gračan
M. Marić
Manager: M. Marić

Friendlies Women: Croatia W 1–3 Montenegro W

Montenegro W beat Croatia W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on October 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Kuc (16'), M. Tomasevic (38'), M. Desic (45'), K. Kurkutovic (59').