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Croatia vs FYR Macedonia — Friendlies 2026

Croatia
Croatia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
Marco Pašalić 79'
L. Majer 45', 10'
6/3/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Croatia56%
×Draw26%
FYR Macedonia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia
1.50
FYR Macedonia
0.70

Croatia creates 114% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Croatia
1.60
FYR Macedonia
0.30

allows per match

Croatia
1.10
FYR Macedonia
1.40

finishing

Croatia+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Croatia or draw
83%
Croatia or FYR Macedonia
74%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
44%

Winning margin

Croatia wins by 2+
29%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Croatia 1+ goals
78%
Croatia 2+ goals
44%
Croatia 3+ goals
19%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
50%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
16%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Croatia (draw refunded)
76%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 0.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia attack 1.60 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

FYR Macedonia attack 0.30 + Croatia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Croatia scores more
56%
level
26%
FYR Macedonia scores more
17%

Croatia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
L. MajerCroatiaCroatia · M
8.6

Match Events

10'
L. Majer
45'
L. Majer↳ B. Petković
46'
L. Sučić← M. Kovačić
55'
L. Ivanušec← A. Kramarić
57'
D. Mitrovski← S. Ashkovski
57'
T. Kostadinov← J. Atanasov
59'
A. Budimir← B. Petković
60'
M. Pjaca← I. Perišić
66'
D. Churlinov← A. Trajkovski
67'
Marco Pašalić← M. Baturina
67'
M. Pongračić← M. Erlić
67'
M. Ristovski← B. Miovski
73'
B. Dimoski← D. Velkovski
79'
Marco Pašalić

Possession

63%Croatia

Shots

8Croatia

Pass accuracy

51%Croatia

Statistics

CroatiaFYR
Overview
63%Possession37%
8Total Shots10
5Corners1
14Fouls17
Shots
8Total Shots10
4On Target3
2Off Target4
2Blocked3
6Inside Box3
2Outside Box7
Passing
63%Possession37%
636Total Passes378
562Accurate Passes312
88%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls17
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Croatia vs FYR Macedonia

Croatia beat FYR Macedonia 3-0 in Friendlies on June 3, 2024.

Goals: L. Majer (10', 45'), Marco Pašalić (79').

Croatia controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka.