Croatia 2–1 Bulgaria: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Croatia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bulgaria

A. Kramarić 80'

L. Modrić 76' (pen)

K. Despodov 69'

3/29/2022

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Education City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Croatia50%

×Draw26%

Bulgaria24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CroatiaExpected goals in this matchBulgaria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.95

Croatia

1.50

Bulgaria

0.95

Croatia creates 58% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

0.80

1.10

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Croatia

1.60

Bulgaria

0.80

allows per match

Croatia

1.10

Bulgaria

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia+0.00on par

Bulgaria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia ↓

Bulgaria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Croatia or draw

76%

Croatia or Bulgaria

74%

Draw or Bulgaria

50%

Winning margin

Croatia wins by 2+

25%

Bulgaria wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Croatia 1+ goals

78%

Croatia 2+ goals

44%

Croatia 3+ goals

19%

Bulgaria 1+ goals

61%

Bulgaria 2+ goals

25%

Bulgaria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Croatia (draw refunded)

68%

Bulgaria (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Bulgaria away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia attack 1.60 + Bulgaria defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bulgaria attack 0.80 + Croatia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Croatia scores more

50%

level

26%

Bulgaria scores more

24%

Croatia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

M. Pongracic← M. Škorić

33'

46'

46'

46'

60'

A. Budimir← M. Livaja

60'

A. Kramarić← N. Vlašić

60'

G. Yomov← R. Kirilov

60'

G. Kostadinov← I. Chochev

63'

Duje Ćaleta-Car

63'

Duje Ćaleta-Car

64'

Kiril Despodov

68'

M. Orachev← I. Turitsov

69'

K. Despodov↳ A. Iliev

71'

Kiril Despodov

71'

Kiril Despodov

72'

L. Modrić← L. Majer

76'

L. ModrićPenalty

77'

Borna Barišić

80'

A. Kramarić↳ M. Oršić

84'

D. Yankov← K. Malinov

84'

B. Tsonev← T. Nedelev

85'

Petko Hristov

88'

Marin Pongračić

Shots

Statistics

CroatiaBulgaria

Overview

16Total Shots9

6Corners4

12Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots9

9On Target4

7Off Target5

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

12Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

1Offsides2