Croatia 2–2 Albania: Result & Stats

Croatia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Albania

K. Gjasula 76' (OG)

A. Kramarić 74'

K. Gjasula 90+5'

Q. Laçi 11'

6/19/2024

Euro Championship · Group B - 2Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Croatia47%

×Draw24%

Albania29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CroatiaExpected goals in this matchAlbania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.29

Croatia

1.71

Albania

1.29

Croatia creates 33% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

1.57

1.00

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Croatia

2.00

Albania

1.57

allows per match

Croatia

1.00

Albania

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia+0.00on par

Albania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia ↓

Albania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Croatia or draw

71%

Croatia or Albania

76%

Draw or Albania

53%

Winning margin

Croatia wins by 2+

25%

Albania wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Croatia 1+ goals

82%

Croatia 2+ goals

51%

Croatia 3+ goals

24%

Albania 1+ goals

72%

Albania 2+ goals

37%

Albania 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Croatia (draw refunded)

62%

Albania (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Albania away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia attack 2.00 + Albania defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Albania attack 1.57 + Croatia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Croatia scores more

47%

level

24%

Albania scores more

29%

Croatia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Strakosha

Albania · G

8.7

Match Events

-5'

Ivica Ivušić

11'

Q. Laçi↳ J. Asani

46'

L. Sučić← L. Majer

46'

Mario Pašalić← M. Brozović

64'

T. Seferi← J. Asani

69'

A. Budimir← B. Petković

73'

K. Gjasula← Q. Laçi

74'

A. Kramarić↳ A. Budimir

76'

Elseid Hysaj

76'

K. GjasulaOwn goal

84'

M. Baturina← A. Kramarić

84'

B. Sosa← I. Perišić

85'

M. Daku← R. Manaj

85'

A. Hoxha← Y. Ramadani

90+7'

Klaus Gjasula

90+3'

Mirlind Daku

90+5'

K. Gjasula

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CroatiaAlbania

Overview

67%Possession33%

22Total Shots15

2.69Expected Goals (xG)1.46

3Corners1

15Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots15

10On Target7

7Off Target2

5Blocked6

15Inside Box9

7Outside Box6

Passing

67%Possession33%

634Total Passes311

572Accurate Passes247

90%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves8

0.92Goals Prevented0.92

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4