Croatia U19 4–1 Switzerland U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Switzerland U19

P. Smiljanic 90'

I. Baric 76'

P. Covic 69'

L. Puljic 11'

S. Camara 68'

3/25/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Gradski stadion Varazdin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Croatia U1943%

×Draw24%

Switzerland U1933%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchSwitzerland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.44

Croatia U19

1.67

Switzerland U19

1.44

Croatia U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

2.25

creates per match

1.92

0.95

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Switzerland U19

1.92

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Switzerland U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

67%

Croatia U19 or Switzerland U19

76%

Draw or Switzerland U19

57%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

22%

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

81%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

50%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

23%

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

76%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

42%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Switzerland U19 attack 1.92 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

43%

level

24%

Switzerland U19 scores more

33%

Croatia U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. Puljic↳ A. Sutalo

33'

G. Stork← M. Akahomen

46'

Z. Tairi← R. Tarnutzer

52'

59'

63'

63'

67'

67'

68'

69'

74'

J. Atangana← L. Kabashi

76'

I. Baric

79'

A. Rajic

80'

P. Smiljanic← P. Covic

80'

L. Vrzic← L. Chelfi

89'

M. Zrilic

90'

P. Smiljanic

Croatia

Switzerland

1

Hoch

13

May

19

▼

Akahomen

2

⚽

Camara

22

William

6

Rufener

14

▼

Tarnutzer

3

▼

Mambwa

7

▼

Kabashi

11

Vasovic

8

▼

Parra

12

Rajic

2

A

Mikic

4

Zebic

5

⚽

▼

Puljic

3

Mandic

16

A

Sutalo

10

⚽

▼

Covic

14

Subotic

8

▼

Bakovic

11

▼

Chelfi

19

▼

Simic

Manager: S. Oreščanin

52'▲M. Zrilic←▼L. Puljic

67'▲I. Baric←▼D. Simic

67'▲D. Godec←▼T. Bakovic

80'▲P. Smiljanic←▼P. Covic

80'▲L. Vrzic←▼L. Chelfi

Croatia U19 substitutes

1Kostopec6Zrilic7Simic9Baric13Godec15Kostelac17Gabric18Smiljanic20Vrzic

Manager: M. Rizzo

33'▲G. Stork←▼M. Akahomen

46'▲Z. Tairi←▼R. Tarnutzer

63'▲N. Puddu←▼I. Parra

63'▲N. Weibel←▼O. Mambwa

74'▲J. Atangana←▼L. Kabashi

Switzerland U19 substitutes

12Huwiler4Bein5Stork9Atangana10Tairi17Puddu18Weibel20Tchamda23Williamson