Croatia U19 1–1 Sweden U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sweden U19

M. Antunović 4'

W. Swedberg 31'

3/25/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Croatia U1957%

×Draw22%

Sweden U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.12

Croatia U19

1.98

Sweden U19

1.12

Croatia U19 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.25

creates per match

1.29

0.95

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Sweden U19

1.29

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Sweden U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

79%

Croatia U19 or Sweden U19

78%

Draw or Sweden U19

43%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

34%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

86%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

59%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

31%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

67%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

31%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

57%

level

22%

Sweden U19 scores more

21%

Croatia U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

M. Antunović

15'

L. Lukanic

21'

31'

32'

46'

51'

62'

62'

R. Brajković← M. Šotiček

68'

W. Odefalk← J. Kanga

70'

N. Gajzler← M. Antunović

73'

M. Karlsson

77'

M. Katinic

83'

F. Topić← L. Lukanić

Croatia

Sweden

1

5

15

17

3

7

⚽

18

10

11

9

▼

Omorowa

8

▼

1

14

5

17

2

20

16

▼

Krivak

8

▼

Lukanić

7

▼

Šotiček

11

Rukavina

19

⚽

▼

Antunović

Manager: J. Šimunić

62'▲A. Babić←▼F. Krivak

62'▲R. Brajković←▼M. Šotiček

70'▲N. Gajzler←▼M. Antunović

83'▲F. Topić←▼L. Lukanić

Croatia U19 substitutes

6Babić10Brajković9Gajzler18Topić15Tikvić12Buljan4Matić3Bodetić

Manager: V. Eriksson

46'▲D. Gül←▼R. Omorowa

68'▲W. Odefalk←▼J. Kanga

Sweden U19 substitutes

19Gül20Odefalk16Ahlstrand12Sandahl4Eklund2Eriksson14Bengtsson6Marshage

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Sweden U19

Croatia U19 and Sweden U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2023.

Goals: M. Antunović (4'), W. Swedberg (31').

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.

Croatia U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Sweden U19