Croatia U19 2–3 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Norway U19

A. Palaversa 88' (pen)

B. Šutalo 76'

J. Larsen 61', 42'

M. Vušković 50' (OG)

3/26/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 6Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Croatia U1938%

×Draw24%

Norway U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.48

Croatia U19

1.49

Norway U19

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

1.71

creates per match

1.67

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Croatia U19

1.71

Norway U19

1.67

allows per match

Croatia U19

1.29

Norway U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

62%

Croatia U19 or Norway U19

76%

Draw or Norway U19

62%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

18%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

77%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

44%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

19%

Norway U19 1+ goals

77%

Norway U19 2+ goals

43%

Norway U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 1.71 + Norway U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Norway U19 attack 1.67 + Croatia U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

38%

level

24%

Norway U19 scores more

38%

Croatia U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

D. Bušnja← I. Dolček

42'

J. Larsen

46'

J. Pršir← J. Blagaić

50'

M. VuškovićOwn goal

52'

E. Hagen← J. Kitolano

61'

J. Larsen

76'

B. Šutalo

77'

L. Šipoš← R. Baturina

88'

A. PalaversaPenalty

Croatia

Norway

▼

⚽2

🥅

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: I. Gudelj

42'▲D. Bušnja←▼I. Dolček

46'▲J. Pršir←▼J. Blagaić

77'▲L. Šipoš←▼R. Baturina

Croatia U19 substitutes

18Bušnja20Pršir19Šipoš12Pandur5Šutalo17Kreković11Hanuljak13Matic

Manager: G. Halle

52'▲E. Hagen←▼J. Kitolano

Norway U19 substitutes

14Hagen9Krygård1Christiansen16Larsen2Pedersen3Williams