Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Croatia U19 vs Latvia U19 — Friendlies 2026

Croatia U19
Croatia U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 2
Latvia U19
Latvia U19
D. Simic 35', 14'
T. Bakovic 6'
R. Gabric 4'
L. Berzins 44'
H. Joksts 27'
2/15/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Croatia U1965%
×Draw19%
Latvia U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia U19
2.25
Latvia U19
1.00

Croatia U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Croatia U19
1.50
Latvia U19
1.25

allows per match

Croatia U19
0.75
Latvia U19
3.00

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par
Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw
84%
Croatia U19 or Latvia U19
81%
Draw or Latvia U19
35%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+
42%
Latvia U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals
89%
Croatia U19 2+ goals
65%
Croatia U19 3+ goals
39%
Latvia U19 1+ goals
63%
Latvia U19 2+ goals
26%
Latvia U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Latvia U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 1.50 + Latvia U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Latvia U19 attack 1.25 + Croatia U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Croatia U19 scores more
65%
level
19%
Latvia U19 scores more
16%

Croatia U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
R. Gabric
6'
T. Bakovic
14'
D. Simic
27'
H. Joksts
35'
D. Simic
44'
L. Berzins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Croatia U19 4–2 Latvia U19

Croatia U19 beat Latvia U19 4-2 in Friendlies on February 15, 2026.

Goals: R. Gabric (4'), T. Bakovic (6'), D. Simic (14', 35'), H. Joksts (27'), L. Berzins (44').