Croatia U19 2–1 Iceland U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Iceland U19

I. Cvijanović 74'

L. Stojković 14'

O. Óskarsson 33'

3/23/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Croatia U1952%

×Draw23%

Iceland U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchIceland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

Croatia U19

1.82

Iceland U19

1.21

Croatia U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

2.25

creates per match

1.47

0.95

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Iceland U19

1.47

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Iceland U19

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Iceland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Iceland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

75%

Croatia U19 or Iceland U19

77%

Draw or Iceland U19

48%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

29%

Iceland U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

84%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

54%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

27%

Iceland U19 1+ goals

70%

Iceland U19 2+ goals

34%

Iceland U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Iceland U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Iceland U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Iceland U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

Iceland U19 attack 1.47 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

52%

level

23%

Iceland U19 scores more

25%

Croatia U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

L. Stojković

33'

O. Óskarsson

63'

B. Barišić← M. Frigan

63'

I. Šaranić← K. Špeljak

63'

M. Soldo← N. Macolić

65'

A. Sigurpálsson← Í. Sigurgeirsson

73'

M. Soldo

74'

I. Cvijanović

80'

A. Birgisson← A. Gíslason

86'

H. Mikaelsson← A. Lúðvíksson

90'

B. Barisic

90+2'

L. Išlić← N. Rak

Croatia

Iceland

1

Arinbjör

5

Antonsson

20

▼

Sigurgeir

6

Jónsson

8

▼

4

14

7

10

9

⚽

Óskarsson

3

▼

1

6

15

5

⚽

Cvijanovi

2

▼

Macolić

10

Vidović

4

▼

Rak

13

Lusavec

11

⚽

Stojković

7

▼

Špeljak

9

▼

Frigan

Manager: J. Šimunić

63'▲B. Barišić←▼M. Frigan

63'▲I. Šaranić←▼K. Špeljak

63'▲M. Soldo←▼N. Macolić

90+2'▲L. Išlić←▼N. Rak

Croatia U19 substitutes

14Barišić17Šaranić20Soldo18Išlić3Žilinski19Krolo16Prpić12Zadro

Manager: Ó. Skúlason

65'▲A. Sigurpálsson←▼Í. Sigurgeirsson

80'▲A. Birgisson←▼A. Gíslason

86'▲H. Mikaelsson←▼A. Lúðvíksson

Iceland U19 substitutes

19Sigurpálsson15Birgisson11Mikaelsson18Tyrfingsson16Halldórsson17Heimisson12Petersson13Þorkelsson

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Iceland U19

Croatia U19 beat Iceland U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2022.

Goals: L. Stojković (14'), O. Óskarsson (33'), I. Cvijanović (74').

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.

Croatia U19 vs Iceland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Iceland U19