Croatia U19 2–0 Greece U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Greece U19

D. Godec 88'

K. Rados 25'

2/12/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Croatia U1938%

×Draw33%

Greece U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchGreece U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.80

Croatia U19

0.96

Greece U19

0.80

Croatia U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

0.86

0.75

allows per match

0.43

creates per match

Croatia U19

1.50

Greece U19

0.86

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.75

Greece U19

0.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Greece U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Greece U19 →

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

71%

Croatia U19 or Greece U19

67%

Draw or Greece U19

62%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

14%

Greece U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

62%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

25%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

Greece U19 1+ goals

55%

Greece U19 2+ goals

19%

Greece U19 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

57%

Greece U19 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Greece U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 1.50 + Greece U19 defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.96

Greece U19 attack 0.86 + Croatia U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

38%

level

33%

Greece U19 scores more

29%

Croatia U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

K. Rados

88'

D. Godec

Croatia

Greece

Manager: S. Oreščanin

Manager: V. Moras