Croatia U19 8–0 Gibraltar U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Gibraltar U19

M. Ascic 88'

L. Vrzic 87', 77', 14'

L. Chelfi 80', 25'

K. Simic 45'

B. Durdov 35'

11/15/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Croatia U1994%

×Draw4%

Gibraltar U191%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchGibraltar U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.33

0.47

Croatia U19

4.33

Gibraltar U19

0.47

Croatia U19 creates 821% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

2.25

creates per match

0.00

0.95

allows per match

6.42

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Gibraltar U19

0.00

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Gibraltar U19

6.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Gibraltar U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Gibraltar U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 66% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

99%

Croatia U19 or Gibraltar U19

96%

Draw or Gibraltar U19

6%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

84%

Gibraltar U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

98%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

92%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

77%

Gibraltar U19 1+ goals

37%

Gibraltar U19 2+ goals

8%

Gibraltar U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

99%

Gibraltar U19 (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Gibraltar U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Gibraltar U19 defence 6.42 → ÷2 → 4.33

Gibraltar U19 attack 0.00 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

94%

level

4%

Gibraltar U19 scores more

1%

Croatia U19 at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

L. Vrzic↳ B. Durdov

25'

L. Chelfi↳ L. Vrzic

35'

B. Durdov↳ T. Bakovic

45+2'

45'

46'

46'

46'

46'

46'

57'

K. Zulfic← M. Subotic

57'

M. Ascic← B. Durdov

59'

M. Caetano← K. Buckley

75'

S. Desoiza← T. Holden

77'

L. Vrzic↳ M. Ascic

80'

L. Chelfi↳ L. Vrzic

81'

L. Ramirez← J. Rowbottom

87'

L. Vrzic↳ K. Mandic

88'

M. Ascic↳ K. Mandic

Croatia

Gibraltar

13

Charvetto

19

▼

Navas

4

Garro

5

Coombes

18

▼

Buckley

6

▼

17

2

14

11

▼

Murien

20

▼

Rowbottom

12

Rajic

6

Knezevic

4

▼

Zebic

3

A

Mandic

20

⚽3A

Vrzic

14

▼

Subotic

10

▼

Covic

11

⚽A

▼

Durdov

15

⚽2A

Chelfi

13

⚽

▼

Simic

8

A

Bakovic

Manager: S. Oreščanin

46'▲I. Baric←▼K. Simic

46'▲J. Brundic←▼P. Covic

46'▲N. Godec←▼M. Zebic

57'▲K. Zulfic←▼M. Subotic

57'▲M. Ascic←▼B. Durdov

Croatia U19 substitutes

1Kostopec2Mikic5Puljic7Zulfic9Baric16Sutalo17Ascic18Brundic19Godec

46'▲A. Parody←▼S. Murien

46'▲D. Smith←▼C. Navas

59'▲M. Caetano←▼K. Buckley

75'▲S. Desoiza←▼T. Holden

81'▲L. Ramirez←▼J. Rowbottom

Gibraltar U19 substitutes

1Recagno3Parody7Ramirez8Desoiza9Caetano10Smith12Schofield15Aboudi16Montovio

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Gibraltar U19

Croatia U19 beat Gibraltar U19 8-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 15, 2025.

Goals: L. Vrzic (14', 77', 87'), L. Chelfi (25', 80'), B. Durdov (35'), K. Simic (45'), M. Ascic (88').

Croatia U19 vs Gibraltar U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Croatia U19 vs Gibraltar U19