Croatia U19 1–2 Finland U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Finland U19

D. Prpić 23'

I. Vidjeskog 21'

B. Bushara 18'

11/19/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 7Igralište NK Rudeš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Croatia U1949%

×Draw24%

Finland U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchFinland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

Croatia U19

1.75

Finland U19

1.25

Croatia U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

2.25

creates per match

1.56

0.95

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Finland U19

1.56

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Finland U19

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Finland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Finland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

73%

Croatia U19 or Finland U19

76%

Draw or Finland U19

51%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

27%

Finland U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

83%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

52%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

25%

Finland U19 1+ goals

71%

Finland U19 2+ goals

36%

Finland U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Finland U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Finland U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Finland U19 attack 1.56 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

49%

level

24%

Finland U19 scores more

27%

Croatia U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

21'

23'

46'

46'

F. Topić← R. Brajković

46'

J. Vrcić← N. Gajzler

62'

L. Gubijan

66'

D. Rökman← J. Talvitie

69'

C. Ottia

72'

N. Bodetic

76'

D. Bukvić← N. Bodetić

81'

I. Vidjeskog

88'

O. Lehtisalo← J. Kilo

90+1'

T. Galvez

Croatia

Finland

1

15

3

4

2

13

10

⚽

Vidjeskog

8

Kujasalo

14

▼

Kilo

19

⚽

Bushara

17

▼

Talvitie

1

Sajko

5

Živković

14

⚽

Prpić

3

▼

Bodetić

2

Gubijan

10

Zvonarek

20

▼

Brajković

8

Lukanić

6

▼

Babić

11

Rukavina

9

▼

Gajzler

Manager: J. Šimunić

46'▲F. Krivak←▼A. Babić

46'▲F. Topić←▼R. Brajković

46'▲J. Vrcić←▼N. Gajzler

76'▲D. Bukvić←▼N. Bodetić

Croatia U19 substitutes

16Krivak17Topić7Vrcić19Bukvić13Bujić18Brkljača15Katinić4Matić12Vuković

Manager: P. Lundberg

66'▲D. Rökman←▼J. Talvitie

88'▲O. Lehtisalo←▼J. Kilo

Finland U19 substitutes

11Rökman20Lehtisalo6Hellemaa12Partanen9Tanninen7Möller16Häggström18Miettinen5Huhtamäki

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Croatia U19 1–2 Finland U19

Finland U19 beat Croatia U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 19, 2022.

Goals: B. Bushara (18'), I. Vidjeskog (21'), D. Prpić (23').

The match was played at Igralište NK Rudeš in Zagreb.

Croatia U19 vs Finland U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Croatia U19 1–2 Finland U19