Croatia U19 2–0 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belarus U19

O. Lukić 90+8' (pen)

A. Baždarić 3' (pen)

11/16/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 5Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Croatia U1965%

×Draw20%

Belarus U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.92

Croatia U19

2.13

Belarus U19

0.92

Croatia U19 creates 132% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

2.25

creates per match

0.88

0.95

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Croatia U19

2.25

Belarus U19

0.88

allows per match

Croatia U19

0.95

Belarus U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Croatia U19 or draw

85%

Croatia U19 or Belarus U19

80%

Draw or Belarus U19

35%

Winning margin

Croatia U19 wins by 2+

41%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Croatia U19 1+ goals

88%

Croatia U19 2+ goals

63%

Croatia U19 3+ goals

35%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

60%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

23%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Croatia U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U19 at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U19 attack 2.25 + Belarus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Belarus U19 attack 0.88 + Croatia U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Croatia U19 scores more

65%

level

20%

Belarus U19 scores more

15%

Croatia U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Croatia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. BaždarićPenalty

9'

L. Puljic

15'

F. Zivkovic

18'

P. Apetenok

24'

E. Mikanovich

26'

M. Bakhno

44'

M. Zebic

65'

N. Šepić← A. Sušak

65'

P. Čović← N. Mikić

67'

M. Mokin← V. Chernyavskiy

72'

A. Akatov← P. Shevchenko

72'

M. Sokolovskiy← E. Bozhko

80'

T. Simanenka← E. Mikanovich

81'

L. Rimac← N. Farkaš

81'

M. Subotić← A. Baždarić

87'

O. Lukić← D. Migalić

90+6'

N. Matysyuk

90+6'

A. Akatau

90+6'

P. Apetenok

90+6'

P. Apetenok

90+8'

R. Mialkouski

90+9'

T. Melnichenko

90+8'

O. LukićPenalty

Croatia

Belarus

16

4

23

15

22

▼

Shevchenk

8

Sokolovsk

17

▼

Mikanovic

7

Myalkovsk

2

▼

Bozhko

11

Melnichen

20

▼

Chernyavs

12

Rajić

2

▼

Migalić

3

▼

Sušak

6

Puljić

20

Zebić

13

▼

Mikić

19

Hodak

16

▼

Farkaš

8

⚽

▼

Baždarić

10

Živković

11

Jovičić

Manager: S. Oreščanin

65'▲N. Šepić←▼A. Sušak

65'▲P. Čović←▼N. Mikić

81'▲L. Rimac←▼N. Farkaš

81'▲M. Subotić←▼A. Baždarić

87'▲O. Lukić←▼D. Migalić

Croatia U19 substitutes

4Šepić15Čović9Rimac14Subotić17Lukić5Utrobičić7Durdov18Chelfi1Bezeljak

Manager: V. Pavlov

67'▲M. Mokin←▼V. Chernyavskiy

72'▲A. Akatov←▼P. Shevchenko

72'▲M. Sokolovskiy←▼E. Bozhko

80'▲T. Simanenka←▼E. Mikanovich

Belarus U19 substitutes

10Mokin3Akatov21Sokolovskiy19Simanenka13Dayneko1Veretynskiy9Kononov5Kondratenya18Shaula

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Croatia U19 2–0 Belarus U19

Croatia U19 beat Belarus U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 16, 2024.

Goals: A. Baždarić (3' pen), O. Lukić (90+8' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Branko Čavlović-Čavlek in Karlovac.

Croatia U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Croatia U19 2–0 Belarus U19