Croatia U18 1–0 Wales U18: Result & Stats

Croatia U18

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wales U18

B. Misura 57'

10/13/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Croatia U1859%

×Draw26%

Wales U1815%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U18Expected goals in this matchWales U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.62

Croatia U18

1.51

Wales U18

0.62

Croatia U18 creates 144% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.89

creates per match

0.57

0.67

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Croatia U18

1.89

Wales U18

0.57

allows per match

Croatia U18

0.67

Wales U18

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U18+0.00on par

Wales U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U18 ↓

Wales U18 →

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Croatia U18 or draw

85%

Croatia U18 or Wales U18

74%

Draw or Wales U18

41%

Winning margin

Croatia U18 wins by 2+

31%

Wales U18 wins by 2+

Team goals

Croatia U18 1+ goals

78%

Croatia U18 2+ goals

44%

Croatia U18 3+ goals

19%

Wales U18 1+ goals

46%

Wales U18 2+ goals

13%

Wales U18 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Croatia U18 (draw refunded)

79%

Wales U18 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Croatia U18 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Wales U18 away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U18 attack 1.89 + Wales U18 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.51

Wales U18 attack 0.57 + Croatia U18 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Croatia U18 scores more

59%

level

26%

Wales U18 scores more

15%

Croatia U18 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Croatia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

B. Misura

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff