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Croatia U18 vs Turkey U18 — Friendlies 2026

Croatia U18
Croatia U18
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Turkey U18
Turkey U18
F. Bokan 88'
L. Geci 29'
T. Kusanovic 7'
6/4/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Croatia U1866%
×Draw21%
Turkey U1813%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia U18
1.94
Turkey U18
0.71

Croatia U18 creates 173% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Croatia U18
1.89
Turkey U18
0.75

allows per match

Croatia U18
0.67
Turkey U18
2.00

finishing

Croatia U18+0.00on par
Turkey U18+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U18 ↓

Turkey U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Croatia U18 or draw
87%
Croatia U18 or Turkey U18
79%
Draw or Turkey U18
34%

Winning margin

Croatia U18 wins by 2+
41%
Turkey U18 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Croatia U18 1+ goals
86%
Croatia U18 2+ goals
58%
Croatia U18 3+ goals
30%
Turkey U18 1+ goals
51%
Turkey U18 2+ goals
16%
Turkey U18 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Croatia U18 (draw refunded)
84%
Turkey U18 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U18 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Turkey U18 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U18 attack 1.89 + Turkey U18 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Turkey U18 attack 0.75 + Croatia U18 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Croatia U18 scores more
66%
level
21%
Turkey U18 scores more
13%

Croatia U18 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Croatia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
T. Kusanovic
29'
L. Geci
88'
F. Bokan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Croatia U18 3–0 Turkey U18

Croatia U18 beat Turkey U18 3-0 in Friendlies on June 4, 2026.

Goals: T. Kusanovic (7'), L. Geci (29'), F. Bokan (88').