Croatia U18 3–0 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Croatia U18

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Norway U19

P. Horvat 58', 23'

G. Sivalec 50'

10/11/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Croatia U1852%

×Draw23%

Norway U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U18Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.19

Croatia U18

1.84

Norway U19

1.19

Croatia U18 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.89

creates per match

1.70

0.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Croatia U18

1.89

Norway U19

1.70

allows per match

Croatia U18

0.67

Norway U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U18+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U18 ↓

Norway U19 →

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Croatia U18 or draw

75%

Croatia U18 or Norway U19

77%

Draw or Norway U19

48%

Winning margin

Croatia U18 wins by 2+

29%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Croatia U18 1+ goals

84%

Croatia U18 2+ goals

55%

Croatia U18 3+ goals

28%

Norway U19 1+ goals

70%

Norway U19 2+ goals

33%

Norway U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Croatia U18 (draw refunded)

68%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Croatia U18 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U18 attack 1.89 + Norway U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

Norway U19 attack 1.70 + Croatia U18 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Croatia U18 scores more

52%

level

23%

Norway U19 scores more

25%

Croatia U18 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Croatia U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

P. Horvat

50'

G. Sivalec

58'

P. Horvat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff