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Croatia U18 vs England U18 — Friendlies 2026

Croatia U18
Croatia U18
CANC
14:45
England U18
England U18
3/31/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Croatia U1836%
×Draw25%
England U1839%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia U18
1.44
England U18
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Croatia U18
1.89
England U18
2.33

allows per match

Croatia U18
0.67
England U18
1.00

finishing

Croatia U18+0.00on par
England U18+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U18 ↓

England U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Croatia U18 or draw
61%
Croatia U18 or England U18
75%
Draw or England U18
64%

Winning margin

Croatia U18 wins by 2+
17%
England U18 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Croatia U18 1+ goals
76%
Croatia U18 2+ goals
42%
Croatia U18 3+ goals
18%
England U18 1+ goals
78%
England U18 2+ goals
44%
England U18 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Croatia U18 (draw refunded)
48%
England U18 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U18 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

England U18 away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U18 attack 1.89 + England U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.44

England U18 attack 2.33 + Croatia U18 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Croatia U18 scores more
36%
level
25%
England U18 scores more
39%

England U18 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "England U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Croatia U18 vs England U18 — Match Preview

Croatia U18 face England U18 on March 31, 2026 in this Friendlies fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.