Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Croatia U17 vs Switzerland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

Croatia U17
Croatia U17
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Switzerland U17
Switzerland U17
5/21/2023UEFA U17 ChampionshipUEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 2Nagyerdei Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Croatia U1728%
×Draw28%
Switzerland U1744%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Croatia U17
0.96
Switzerland U17
1.29

Switzerland U17 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Croatia U17
0.25
Switzerland U17
1.33

allows per match

Croatia U17
1.25
Switzerland U17
1.67

finishing

Croatia U17+0.00on par
Switzerland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U17 ↓

Switzerland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Croatia U17 or draw
56%
Croatia U17 or Switzerland U17
72%
Draw or Switzerland U17
72%

Winning margin

Croatia U17 wins by 2+
10%
Switzerland U17 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Croatia U17 1+ goals
62%
Croatia U17 2+ goals
25%
Croatia U17 3+ goals
7%
Switzerland U17 1+ goals
72%
Switzerland U17 2+ goals
37%
Switzerland U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Croatia U17 (draw refunded)
39%
Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U17 at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Switzerland U17 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U17 attack 0.25 + Switzerland U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Switzerland U17 attack 1.33 + Croatia U17 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Croatia U17 scores more
28%
level
28%
Switzerland U17 scores more
44%

Switzerland U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Switzerland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship: Croatia U17 1–2 Switzerland U17

Switzerland U17 beat Croatia U17 2-1 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 21, 2023.

The match was played at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen.