Croatia U17 0–1 England U17: Result & Stats

Croatia U17

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

England U17

5/18/2023

UEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 1Balmazújvárosi Városi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Croatia U1720%

×Draw22%

England U1759%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U17Expected goals in this matchEngland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.96

Croatia U17

1.04

England U17

1.96

England U17 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.25

creates per match

2.67

1.25

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Croatia U17

0.25

England U17

2.67

allows per match

Croatia U17

1.25

England U17

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U17+0.00on par

England U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U17 ↓

England U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Croatia U17 or draw

41%

Croatia U17 or England U17

78%

Draw or England U17

80%

Winning margin

Croatia U17 wins by 2+

7%

England U17 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Croatia U17 1+ goals

65%

Croatia U17 2+ goals

28%

Croatia U17 3+ goals

9%

England U17 1+ goals

86%

England U17 2+ goals

58%

England U17 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Croatia U17 (draw refunded)

25%

England U17 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia U17 at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

England U17 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U17 attack 0.25 + England U17 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

England U17 attack 2.67 + Croatia U17 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Croatia U17 scores more

20%

level

22%

England U17 scores more

59%

England U17 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "England U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff