Croatia U16 W 1–0 Morocco U17 W: Result & Stats

Croatia U16 W

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Morocco U17 W

L. Popic 63'

5/7/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Croatia U16 W84%

×Draw13%

Morocco U17 W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia U16 WExpected goals in this matchMorocco U17 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.25

Croatia U16 W

2.29

Morocco U17 W

0.25

Croatia U16 W creates 816% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

0.50

0.00

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Croatia U16 W

2.33

Morocco U17 W

0.50

allows per match

Croatia U16 W

0.00

Morocco U17 W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia U16 W+0.00on par

Morocco U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No80
Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia U16 W ↓

Morocco U17 W →

0–08%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–018%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–021%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–016%

3–14%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–09%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Croatia U16 W or draw

97%

Croatia U16 W or Morocco U17 W

87%

Draw or Morocco U17 W

16%

Winning margin

Croatia U16 W wins by 2+

60%

Morocco U17 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Croatia U16 W 1+ goals

90%

Croatia U16 W 2+ goals

66%

Croatia U16 W 3+ goals

40%

Morocco U17 W 1+ goals

22%

Morocco U17 W 2+ goals

Morocco U17 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Croatia U16 W (draw refunded)

97%

Morocco U17 W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Croatia U16 W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Morocco U17 W away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Croatia U16 W attack 2.33 + Morocco U17 W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Morocco U17 W attack 0.50 + Croatia U16 W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

Croatia U16 W scores more

84%

level

13%

Morocco U17 W scores more

Croatia U16 W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Croatia U16 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

63'

L. Popic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff