Cristo Atlético 1–2 Mirandés II: Result & Stats

Cristo Atlético

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mirandés II

4/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Cristo Atlético48%

×Draw28%

Mirandés II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cristo AtléticoExpected goals in this matchMirandés II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.86

Cristo Atlético

1.36

Mirandés II

0.86

Cristo Atlético creates 58% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 112 away

1.38

creates per match

1.04

0.69

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Cristo Atlético

1.38

Mirandés II

1.04

allows per match

Cristo Atlético

0.69

Mirandés II

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Mirandés II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

Mirandés II →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw

76%

Cristo Atlético or Mirandés II

72%

Draw or Mirandés II

52%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+

23%

Mirandés II wins by 2+

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals

74%

Cristo Atlético 2+ goals

39%

Cristo Atlético 3+ goals

16%

Mirandés II 1+ goals

58%

Mirandés II 2+ goals

21%

Mirandés II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)

67%

Mirandés II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

Mirandés II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + Mirandés II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mirandés II attack 1.04 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more

48%

level

28%

Mirandés II scores more

24%

Cristo Atlético at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cristo Atlético vs Mirandés II

Mirandés II beat Cristo Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.

Cristo Atlético vs Mirandés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cristo Atlético vs Mirandés II