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Cristo Atlético vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Álvaro de Lera 62'
2/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cristo Atlético57%
×Draw26%
La Bañeza17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cristo Atlético
1.53
La Bañeza
0.69

Cristo Atlético creates 122% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 31 away

creates per match

Cristo Atlético
1.38
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Cristo Atlético
0.69
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw
83%
Cristo Atlético or La Bañeza
74%
Draw or La Bañeza
43%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
30%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
78%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
45%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
20%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
50%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
15%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
77%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.53

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more
57%
level
26%
La Bañeza scores more
17%

Cristo Atlético at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Javi Bueno← Víctor Abajo
60'
David Martín← Edu Gallardo
60'
Zubi← Víctor García
60'
Dieguito← A. Mizrachi
60'
Jorge Suárez← Juan del Pino
60'
Samuel Mayo← Yordan
60'
Lorento← Aitor García
62'
Álvaro de Lera
66'
Raúl Arroyo← Sellés
79'
Rubén Burón← Álvaro de Lera
90'
Adrián Rojo← Dani Alonso
Cristo
La
Martin Diez
Diez
Pablo González
González
Victor Fernandez
Fernandez
Diego Franco
Franco
Aitor García
▼
García
Dani Alonso
▼
Alonso
Álvaro de Lera
⚽
▼
Lera
Juan del Pino
▼
Pino
Jorge Prieto
Prieto
Yordan
▼
Yordan
Erik Del Río
Río
Guillermo García
García
Charly
Charly
Juan Ignacio Pajín
Pajín
Abel Pascual
Pascual
Sellés
▼
Sellés
Víctor Abajo
▼
Abajo
Víctor García
▼
García
A. Mizrachi
▼
Mizrachi
Jesús Torres
Torres
Álvaro González
González
Edu Gallardo
▼
Gallardo
Rubén Gala
Manager: Rubén Gala
37'▲Javi Bueno←▼Víctor Abajo
60'▲David Martín←▼Edu Gallardo
60'▲Zubi←▼Víctor García
60'▲Dieguito←▼A. Mizrachi
66'▲Raúl Arroyo←▼Sellés

Cristo Atlético substitutes

BuenoMartínZubiDieguitoArroyo
Carlos Delgado
Manager: Carlos Delgado
60'▲Jorge Suárez←▼Juan del Pino
60'▲Samuel Mayo←▼Yordan
60'▲Lorento←▼Aitor García
79'▲Rubén Burón←▼Álvaro de Lera
90'▲Adrián Rojo←▼Dani Alonso

La Bañeza substitutes

SuárezMayoLorentoBurónRojo

Cristo Atlético 0 – 1 La Bañeza

La Bañeza beat Cristo Atlético 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 6, 2021.

Goals: Álvaro de Lera (62').

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.