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Cristo Atlético vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
4/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Cristo Atlético43%
×Draw29%
Cultural Leonesa II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cristo Atlético
1.23
Cultural Leonesa II
0.93

Cristo Atlético creates 32% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 110 away

creates per match

Cristo Atlético
1.38
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Cristo Atlético
0.69
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw
72%
Cristo Atlético or Cultural Leonesa II
71%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
57%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
19%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
71%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
35%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
13%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
61%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
24%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
61%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more
43%
level
29%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
28%

Cristo Atlético at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cristo Atlético vs Cultural Leonesa II

Cristo Atlético beat Cultural Leonesa II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 18, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.