Criciuma vs Vila Nova: Preview & Prediction

Criciuma

Preview

19:00

Vila Nova

7/18/2026

Serie B · Round 18

Big match

51%

Criciuma

model favours

51%27%22%

Criciuma are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

60%

under 2.5 goals

43%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Criciuma51%

×Draw27%

Vila Nova22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.83

Criciuma

1.44

Vila Nova

0.83

Criciuma creates 73% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

1.50

creates per match

0.86

0.81

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Criciuma

1.50

Vila Nova

0.86

allows per match

Criciuma

0.81

Vila Nova

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

78%

Criciuma or Vila Nova

73%

Draw or Vila Nova

49%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

26%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

76%

Criciuma 2+ goals

42%

Criciuma 3+ goals

18%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

56%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

20%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

70%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.81 · 32 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.50 + Vila Nova defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vila Nova attack 0.86 + Criciuma defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Criciuma scores more

51%

level

27%

Vila Nova scores more

22%

Criciuma at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

86% of Criciuma’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Criciuma have won 4 in a row
Criciuma score first in 79% of matches
Top-of-the-table clash — Criciuma 1 vs Vila Nova 2
Style contrast — Criciuma play Defensively solid, Vila Nova Direct / counter-attacking
Vila Nova outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)