Criciuma 1–0 Vila Nova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Criciuma

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vila Nova

Felipe Vizeu 22'

8/23/2023

Serie B · Round 25Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Criciuma52%

×Draw27%

Vila Nova21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchVila Nova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.81

Criciuma

1.43

Vila Nova

0.81

Criciuma creates 77% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

0.83

0.80

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Criciuma

1.49

Vila Nova

0.83

allows per match

Criciuma

0.80

Vila Nova

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Vila Nova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Vila Nova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

79%

Criciuma or Vila Nova

73%

Draw or Vila Nova

48%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

26%

Vila Nova wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

76%

Criciuma 2+ goals

42%

Criciuma 3+ goals

17%

Vila Nova 1+ goals

56%

Vila Nova 2+ goals

19%

Vila Nova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

71%

Vila Nova (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.80 · 35 matches

Vila Nova away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.49 + Vila Nova defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vila Nova attack 0.83 + Criciuma defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Criciuma scores more

52%

level

27%

Vila Nova scores more

21%

Criciuma at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

Claudinho

Criciuma · D

7.7

Match Events

12'

Hiago← Marcondes

22'

Felipe Vizeu↳ Rodrigo

23'

Felipe Vizeu

46'

Éverton Brito← Henrique Almeida

66'

Marquinhos Gabriel← Felipe Vizeu

73'

Luciano Naninho← Igor Henrique

74'

Guilherme Parede

76'

Arilson

79'

Hygor← Éder

80'

80'

82'

82'

90+3'

90+4'

90+6'

90+8'

90'

Hélder← Fabinho

90'

Léo Costa← Arilson

90+1'

Neto Pessoa← Caio Dantas

90+1'

Marlone← Lourenço

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaVila

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots13

5Corners2

27Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots13

1On Target3

3Off Target4

4Blocked6

5Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

253Total Passes396

162Accurate Passes310

64%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

27Fouls17

6Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1