Criciuma 1–1 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats | Serie B

Criciuma

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ponte Preta

Lohan 90+1'

Lucca 3'

7/15/2022

Serie B · Round 18Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Criciuma56%

×Draw24%

Ponte Preta20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.89

Criciuma

1.69

Ponte Preta

0.89

Criciuma creates 90% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

0.86

0.91

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Criciuma

1.56

Ponte Preta

0.86

allows per match

Criciuma

0.91

Ponte Preta

1.82

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Criciuma-0.31scores less

Ponte Preta-0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

80%

Criciuma or Ponte Preta

76%

Draw or Ponte Preta

44%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

31%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

82%

Criciuma 2+ goals

50%

Criciuma 3+ goals

24%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

59%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

22%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

74%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.91 · 12 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.82 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.56 + Ponte Preta defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ponte Preta attack 0.86 + Criciuma defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Criciuma scores more

56%

level

24%

Ponte Preta scores more

20%

Criciuma at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Artur

Ponte Preta · D

7.9

Match Events

3'

Lucca↳ Artur

11'

17'

21'

29'

40'

45+5'

46'

Zé Marcos← Kadu

46'

Thiago Alagoano← Cristovam

46'

Danilo Gomes← Lucca

46'

Igor Formiga← Norberto Neto

61'

Hélder← Marcelo Hermes

70'

Alexandre Tam← Lucas

70'

Lohan← Caio Dantas

70'

Luiz Felipe← Amaral

70'

Wesley← Wallisson

70'

Victor Luiz← Jean Carlos

90+2'

Rômulo

90+2'

Lohan

90+1'

Lohan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaPonte

Overview

56%Possession44%

20Total Shots15

6Corners5

17Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots15

4On Target5

11Off Target10

5Blocked0

10Inside Box7

10Outside Box8

Passing

56%Possession44%

407Total Passes313

316Accurate Passes231

78%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls16

6Yellow Cards2

4Offsides4