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Criciuma vs Atlético Catarinense — Catarinense - 2 2022

Criciuma
Criciuma
FT
3 – 1
Atlético Catarinense
Atlético Catarinense
6/14/2022Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 2Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Criciuma57%
×Draw26%
Atlético Catarinense17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Criciuma
1.52
Atlético Catarinense
0.71

Criciuma creates 114% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Criciuma
1.88
Atlético Catarinense
0.92

allows per match

Criciuma
0.50
Atlético Catarinense
1.17

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par
Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Atlético Catarinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw
83%
Criciuma or Atlético Catarinense
74%
Draw or Atlético Catarinense
43%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals
78%
Criciuma 2+ goals
45%
Criciuma 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals
51%
Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Atlético Catarinense away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.88 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.52

Atlético Catarinense attack 0.92 + Criciuma defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Criciuma scores more
57%
level
26%
Atlético Catarinense scores more
17%

Criciuma at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Criciuma vs Atlético Catarinense

Criciuma beat Atlético Catarinense 3-1 in Catarinense - 2 on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Criciúma, Santa Catarina.