Criciuma 3–2 Amazonas: Result & Stats | Serie B

Criciuma

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Amazonas

Marcelo Hermes 90'

Nicolas 48'

Marcinho 19'

N. Castrillon 59'

Jackson 31'

6/15/2025

Serie B · Round 12Estádio Heriberto Hülse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Criciuma55%

×Draw28%

Amazonas17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CriciumaExpected goals in this matchAmazonas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.64

Criciuma

1.40

Amazonas

0.64

Criciuma creates 119% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 38 away

1.37

creates per match

0.63

0.64

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Criciuma

1.37

Amazonas

0.63

allows per match

Criciuma

0.64

Amazonas

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Criciuma+0.00on par

Amazonas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Criciuma ↓

Amazonas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Criciuma or draw

83%

Criciuma or Amazonas

72%

Draw or Amazonas

45%

Winning margin

Criciuma wins by 2+

28%

Amazonas wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Criciuma 1+ goals

75%

Criciuma 2+ goals

41%

Criciuma 3+ goals

17%

Amazonas 1+ goals

47%

Amazonas 2+ goals

14%

Amazonas 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Criciuma (draw refunded)

76%

Amazonas (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Criciuma at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.64 · 89 matches

Amazonas away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Criciuma attack 1.37 + Amazonas defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Amazonas attack 0.63 + Criciuma defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Criciuma scores more

55%

level

28%

Amazonas scores more

17%

Criciuma at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Criciuma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Marcelo Hermes

Criciuma · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

10'

19'

31'

38'

39'

43'

Jhonata RobertPenalty cancelled

46'

Everton Morelli← Matheus Trindade

48'

Nicolas↳ Marcelo Hermes

59'

N. Castrillon↳ K. Ramirez

61'

A. Rodriguez← Luan Silva

61'

Guilherme Xavier← Rafael Monteiro

65'

Jean Carlos← Jhonata Robert

67'

J. Torres← K. Ramirez

76'

Joao Carlos← Rodrigo

76'

Juninho← Guilherme Lobo

76'

Rafael Tavares← D. Zabala

76'

William Barbio← Matheus Blade

84'

Fabiano

86'

Sassa← Diego Goncalves

90+3'

Marcelo Hermes

90+7'

Joaquín Torres

90'

Marcelo Hermes↳ Everton Morelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CriciumaAmazonas

Overview

67%Possession33%

21Total Shots10

5Corners3

10Fouls20

Shots

21Total Shots10

12On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

11Inside Box6

10Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

482Total Passes227

412Accurate Passes155

85%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls20

4Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2